Sostenus Wilherm
Namibia is heading into a potentially punishing 2026/27 rainfall season, with the Namibia Meteorological Service warning of widespread below-normal rainfall and temperatures reaching up to 3°C above average, raising fresh concerns for agriculture, livestock, water resources and disaster management.
The warning is being driven largely by an intensifying El Niño, which meteorologists say could create conditions similar to the severe 2015/16 season.
“Together, El Niño and a positive IOD will weaken the Angola Low and strengthen the Botswana High, cutting off Namibia’s moisture the way it did in 2015/2016,” the Namibia Meteorological Service states.
According to the forecast, El Niño has strengthened significantly, with sea surface temperature anomalies now exceeding 2°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
The Meteorological Service says the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts that El Niño will continue intensifying through the end of 2026.
NOAA gives a 69% chance that the October-to-December 2026 period could become the strongest El Niño event recorded since 1950, while the probability of a very strong El Niño event during the 2026/27 season is placed above 90%.
The climate outlook also warns that the Indian Ocean Dipole, currently neutral, is expected to turn positive towards the end of 2026, further contributing to the dry conditions.
The regional climate outlook from the Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33) similarly forecasts below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across Namibia into early 2027.
For October to December 2026, below-normal rainfall is expected to dominate most of the country, although isolated areas could experience normal or above-normal rainfall.
The Meteorological Service says the percentage-of-normal forecast shows a “consistent tilt toward below-normal conditions”, with rainfall in some areas expected to be between 70% and 90% of the long-term average.
However, the outlook becomes significantly more concerning from January to March 2027.
“The second part of the rainfall season from January to March 2027 is expected to have a spatially uniform dominance of the below-normal rainfall category essentially through the whole country,” the statement says.
“No area shows a normal (NN) signal at all,” it adds.
The forecast indicates rainfall deficits exceeding 100 millimetres and reaching the 150mm range in some parts of the central interior, Ohangwena, Omusati, Oshikoto, western Kavango, northern Otjozondjupa and parts of Khomas.
Moderate deficits are expected across Omaheke, extending southwards through Hardap and //Karas.
The Meteorological Service warns that the January-to-March period “may carry the heaviest absolute rainfall shortfall.”
The expected rainfall shortages will be compounded by above-normal temperatures.
For October to December 2026, the entire country has a high likelihood of experiencing above-average maximum temperatures, with the eastern parts expected to reach about 1°C above normal and the extreme south-east potentially recording temperatures up to 2°C above normal.
The heat outlook becomes more severe during January to March 2027, with temperatures expected to reach up to 3°C above average in western Ohangwena, northern Hardap, western Erongo and Omaheke.
The forecast comes after Namibia experienced a mixed 2025/26 rainfall season, which brought both destructive flooding and damaging dry conditions.
The season started well across most of the country, but excessive rainfall resulted in flooding that affected 8,068 households in the Zambezi Region.
Two fatalities were reported in Kabbe North and Kabbe South, while more than 2,321 affected households were relocated to higher ground.
Crops were submerged before reaching maturity, while more than 500 cattle and 30 goats were trapped in flood-prone areas.
Infrastructure was also damaged, with strong winds affecting properties in Mariental, Aranos and Hoachanas, while several roads were closed in the north-eastern and southern parts of the country.
Despite the strong start, January 2026 was predominantly dry, negatively affecting western and central Namibia.
April, however, brought exceptionally high rainfall and was recorded as the sixth-wettest April in 45 years.
The Meteorological Service says the new outlook should prompt authorities and climate-sensitive sectors to act before the anticipated impacts materialise.
“This climate intelligence and insights should trigger preparedness and early action in our disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” the statement says.
The Directorate of Disaster Risk Management under the office of the prime minister is expected to coordinate and issue seasonal disaster-risk management preparedness and early-action advice for the 2026/27 season.
The Meteorological Service said it would continue monitoring the situation and issue monthly updates through its Climate Watch bulletins.
