CHAMWE KAIRA
Growing global focus on energy security, electrification and the expansion of artificial intelligence and data centres is strengthening policy support for nuclear power, supporting expectations of long-term growth in uranium demand.
According to market information presented by Paladin Energy, 38 countries have endorsed the COP28 pledge to triple global nuclear power capacity by 2050.
China is leading the expansion of nuclear power, with 38 reactors, representing 43 gigawatts (GW), under construction.
India plans to increase its nuclear capacity from approximately 8GW to 100GW by 2047.
In the United States, federal policy and funding support are underpinning a target to quadruple nuclear generation capacity from about 100GW to 400GW by 2050.
The World Bank has also changed its policy to permit support for nuclear energy, potentially widening financing and advisory opportunities for eligible projects.
These developments are contributing to expectations of increased uranium requirements as countries seek to diversify their energy sources and meet rising electricity demand.
Paladin’s market presentation indicates that uranium prices have recovered significantly but remain below historical highs when adjusted for inflation.
The uranium market has experienced several boom-and-bust cycles over the past decades, influenced by oil price shocks, nuclear power expansion, major nuclear accidents, geopolitical conflicts and changes in investment activity.
Historical events affecting the market include the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, the Chernobyl disaster in 1986, the Fukushima accident in 2011 and the Russia-Ukraine war, alongside periods of increased investment in physical uranium funds.
The presentation also identifies the expansion of nuclear power in China, India and Russia, as well as decarbonisation policies, as factors shaping the market’s long-term outlook.
Despite the recovery in uranium prices, the market faces a potential gap between projected reactor requirements and available production.
Paladin cited World Nuclear Association and UxC forecasts showing differences between uranium requirements and production across major nuclear power markets in 2028.
The figures highlight the importance of established uranium-producing countries, including Kazakhstan, Canada, Australia and Namibia, in supplying nuclear fuel to utilities worldwide.
Paladin said its assets are strategically positioned to supply the global uranium market.
The company highlighted its Langer Heinrich Mine (LHM) in the Erongo Region as a source of supply diversification for utilities seeking alternatives to production from Kazakhstan, Canada and Uzbekistan.
Its presentation also identified Paladin’s PLS project in Canada as being positioned to supply utilities across Western jurisdictions, subject to obtaining the required construction and operating licences and meeting other regulatory requirements.
