CHAMWE KAIRA
Standard Bank has raised its forecast for Namibia’s real economic growth in 2026 to between 2.2% and 2.9%, from its initial forecast of 1.2%, following stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter and an upward revision to first-quarter growth.
Standard Bank Group economist Helena Mboti said the stronger second-quarter performance and revised first-quarter figures had shifted the bank’s outlook away from a structurally weaker growth path towards growth broadly in line with 2025.
“The stronger 2Q26 print and upward revision to 1Q26 shift our outlook away from a structurally weaker growth path towards growth broadly in line with 2025,” Mboti said.
The Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) reported that economic activity accelerated to 4.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, from a revised 3.1% in the first quarter, compared with 1.7% in the second quarter of 2025.
The first-quarter growth figure was revised from 2.0%. The tertiary sector remained the main anchor of growth, expanding by 6.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, compared with 3.8% a year earlier.
Wholesale and retail trade grew by 9.0%, agriculture by 17.8%, while health activity increased by 17.6%, compared with 2.7% in the second quarter of 2025.
These sectors contributed 0.9 percentage points, 0.8 percentage points and 0.7 percentage points to overall growth, respectively.
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) also strengthened, increasing by 14.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, compared with a contraction of 4.4% in the same period of 2025 and growth of 3.4% in the first quarter of 2026.
Standard Bank said the increase was driven primarily by machinery and transport equipment.
According to the bank, stronger capital formation and project activity can feed through to procurement and household income, supporting private spending and tertiary-sector activity.
Private consumption increased by 11.6% during the quarter, while the tertiary sector remained resilient.
However, the economy continued to face structural weaknesses, with mining contracting by 3.1%, construction by 15.5% and electricity and water by 2.6%.
These sectors subtracted 0.3 percentage points, 0.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, from overall growth.
The 4.8% year-on-year growth rate was also partly supported by favourable base effects. Real GDP increased only marginally from N$41.38 billion in the first quarter to N$41.52 billion in the second quarter, representing quarterly growth of 0.3%.
Mboti said the near-term outlook had improved, but the sustainability of the growth would depend on the domestic transmission of investment spending and the resilience of agriculture to climate shocks.
Higher inflation and interest rates, together with rising global oil prices, could weigh on consumption and increase the import bill during the second half of 2026, potentially pushing growth towards the lower end of the bank’s forecast range.
The bank also warned that agricultural momentum could weaken into 2027 as El Niño intensifies.
Further delays in final investment decisions or a slowdown in foreign investment-related spending could also weaken domestic economic activity.
