CHAMWE KAIRA
Namibia has an opportunity to unlock approximately N$14.5 billion in new manufacturing and value-addition activities, according to an analysis by Simonis Storm, which says the country’s widening trade deficit highlights the urgency of industrialisation efforts.
In a report analysing Namibia’s April 2026 trade figures alongside a recent United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) assessment, Simonis Storm said the country’s N$4.4 billion trade deficit reflects longstanding structural challenges linked to the export of raw materials and the import of higher-value finished products.
The analysis draws on a UNCTAD Rapid Assessment published in February 2026 and developed in collaboration with the National Planning Commission.
The study identified 353 products across 23 sectors that Namibia could potentially manufacture using its existing productive capabilities.
According to Simonis Storm, the assessment estimates a weighted global export opportunity of US$811 million, including 60 products linked to critical energy transition mineral value chains.
A further 33 products in the sector alone represent a potential market worth US$221 million, with China, South Africa and France identified as key export destinations.
The report noted that regional opportunities within the Southern African Development Community (SADC) amount to roughly US$334.5 million, while the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents additional export prospects in countries such as Egypt, Morocco and Nigeria.
Simonis Storm said Namibia also has import-substitution potential, with 68 products valued at US$116.8 million that could be produced domestically instead of being imported.
The firm argued that April’s trade data illustrates the country’s dependence on exporting raw or minimally processed commodities.
Non-monetary gold accounted for 17.7% of exports during the month, while uranium represented 15%. However, Simonis Storm noted that much of the higher-value processing associated with these commodities occurs outside Namibia.
The report highlighted copper as an example, noting that copper ore is exported at significantly lower values than refined copper products.
Although the Tsumeb smelter produces blister copper, downstream manufacturing of products such as wire and cable remains limited.
Meanwhile, Namibia imported N$292 million worth of ores and concentrates of base metals in April, products which Simonis Storm said often originate from local mines before being processed abroad and re-imported as finished goods.
The analysis also pointed to limited local beneficiation in the diamond sector and warned that while Namibia’s ban on the export of unprocessed lithium supports value-addition objectives, processing infrastructure still needs to be developed.
Simonis Storm further cited UNCTAD findings showing that exports of processed copper and zinc products have declined by 68% and 99%, respectively, in recent years.
Simonis Storm estimated that the full diversification programme outlined by UNCTAD would require approximately US$2.13 billion in investment and could create around 26,460 jobs.
The largest opportunities were identified in iron and steel manufacturing, machinery production, copper products, electrical equipment, food processing, pharmaceuticals and chemicals.
