Chamwe Kaira
Namibia’s inflation outlook for 2026 remains under pressure, with rising transport costs and global geopolitical tensions expected to push prices higher in the months ahead.
This is according to FNB Namibia economists Cheryl Emvula and graduate analyst Ndateelela Amukushu in their April 2026 consumer price index (CPI) review.
The analysts said cost-related factors are expected to remain the main drivers of inflation. They warned that higher transport costs and ongoing global tensions could increase inflationary pressures across the economy.
They said food inflation is likely to remain relatively contained in the short term. However, rising fuel prices and supply chain disruptions could increase fertiliser costs and raise agricultural production expenses. If these pressures continue, food prices could rise over time.
Headline inflation increased to 3.1% year-on-year in April 2026 from 2.1% in March. It remained below the 3.6% recorded in April 2025.
Core inflation eased slightly to 2.8% from 2.9% in March and remained below headline inflation.
According to the report, core inflation previously exceeded headline inflation because of stronger demand-driven pressures. The latest figures suggest inflation is now being driven more by rising costs.
Transport was the biggest contributor to the increase in headline inflation.
Petrol prices increased by N$2.50 per litre, while diesel prices rose by N$4.00 during the period. As a result, transport inflation rose to 5.0% year-on-year in April from a contraction of 1.7% in March.
On a monthly basis, the cost of operating personal transport equipment increased by 9.4%, compared to 0.5% in the previous month.
The report noted that more fuel price increases and higher taxi fares are expected, which could keep transport costs elevated and place further pressure on prices.
Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation increased to 2.0% year-on-year from 1.7%, marking a second consecutive monthly rise.
Prices increased for meat, vegetables and beverages such as coffee, tea and cocoa. Food inflation remained moderate as fruit prices eased and bread and cereal prices declined.
The analysts said tensions in the Middle East could disrupt global supply chains and increase import costs, creating further risks for food inflation.
Inflation for alcoholic beverages and tobacco eased slightly to 1.8% year-on-year from 1.9%, reflecting slower price increases for alcoholic beverages while tobacco prices remained stable.
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel inflation remained high at 4.4% year-on-year in April, down slightly from 4.6% in March.
Rental and utility costs continued to drive inflation in this category.
Services inflation remained at 3.6% year-on-year, while goods inflation rose sharply to 2.8% from 1.0%.
The report noted that housing and health services continue to show persistent price pressures, indicating that inflation in these sectors may remain elevated in the coming months.
