Chamwe Kaira
FNB Namibia predicts that agriculture, mining, and tourism will drive economic growth in 2026, despite the presence of risks.
FNB market research manager Mandisa Van Wyk said cyclical improvements in agriculture are likely to support the primary sector and related industries such as meat processing.
Mining output is also expected to improve, supported by renewed oil and gas exploration.
She said TotalEnergies’ anticipated final investment decision mid-year could boost investor interest.
Van Wyk said the electricity and water sectors are expected to gain momentum as investment in water security and power generation continues.
“Tourism is also poised for a lift from increased business travel and corporate-related activity, with downstream benefits expected for wholesale and retail trade,” she said.
Namibia’s real GDP growth slowed to 1.7% year on year in 2025, the lowest level since momentum around oil and gas first increased. The slowdown highlights the need for reforms across key sectors.
Mining remains a key driver of economic activity, with spillover effects into other sectors and long-term growth potential.
“The tertiary sector remains the leading contributor to overall GDP growth, even as employment remains concentrated in agriculture, reflecting the persistent mismatch between labour distribution and economic output,” said Van Wyk.
Despite the expected improvements, fiscal pressure remains a concern. Government revenue declined by 3.6% year on year in 2025 to N$92.7 billion from N$96.1 billion in 2024.
Planned fiscal consolidation in 2026 is expected to limit domestic demand. Cuts to development spending may affect construction activity.
Demand growth is also expected to remain weak due to high unemployment and the risk of rising inflation, especially if global oil prices increase.
Regulatory pressure and policy uncertainty may also affect investor confidence and delay projects.
“Consequently, we will be revising our real GDP growth in 2026, before gradually recovering in the medium term as structural reforms begin to take hold and policy clarity improves,” she said.
