CHAMWE KAIRA
The Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) outbreak could result in approximately 12 000 jobs being lost across 2026 and 2027, while adding up to 0.29 percentage points to inflation in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to Simonis Storm.
The financial services firm estimates that the outbreak could reduce Namibia’s 2026 real GDP growth to about 2.0%, from a pre-outbreak forecast of 2.5%.
Simonis Storm estimates the livestock shock will reduce economic growth by about 0.45 percentage points in 2026, while fourth-quarter GDP could contract by about 0.7% year-on-year.
The firm also estimates that the outbreak could cost the government about N$1.80 billion in 2026 and 2027, while the net trade drag could reach N$1.43 billion in 2027.
Despite the economic impact, Simonis Storm said the national economy could absorb the shock, although the consequences would be severe for rural Namibia, farm families, farm workers and towns dependent on abattoir activity.
The firm said Namibia had recently absorbed a larger livestock shock, with livestock output falling by more than a fifth in 2025 while GDP still grew by about 1.7%.
Its base-case assumption of an 8% livestock loss is roughly one-third of the 2025 decline.
Simonis Storm said the current outbreak involved one confirmed farm, while a nationwide livestock standstill was imposed on the same day.
It said stamping out remained possible and that the disease profile was consistent with recovery in about six months.
A control area along the Orange River has been gazetted since March. Simonis Storm said the trade loss remained small relative to Namibia’s reserves and that the government budget could carry the cost.
However, the firm warned that the risks were significant if the disease spread further or Namibia vaccinated and retained animals, which could roughly triple the recovery timeline.
Namibia’s exposure to infected areas, game-crossing fences and drought also raises the cost of holding animals that cannot be sold, according to the analysis.
According to Simonis Storm, three scenarios considered by the firm point to a collapse in cattle marketed during October.
November is expected to be decisive, with the contained scenario implying cattle marketings about 15% below normal as abattoirs outside //Kharas region restart.
Simonis Storm said it would update its scenario assessments with each livestock marketing release, alongside developments in veterinary restrictions, tracing results, the choice between stamping out and vaccination, and the response of importing countries.
The firm said a faster narrowing of the livestock ban and acceptance of regionalisation by importing countries could allow 2026 growth to remain close to 2.3%.
