As we approach October 2024, Namibian farmers and farm workers are gearing up for the start of the summer crop season. This period marks the beginning of land preparation and planting activities for staple crops such as maize, pearl millet (mahangu), sorghum, groundnuts, and other legumes. Much like our counterparts in Southern Africa, the timing of these activities in Namibia is heavily influenced by rainfall patterns.
In Namibia, the onset of the rainy season typically begins in late October to early November. The central and northern regions, which are the main agricultural hubs, are the first to receive rain. However, the southern and western parts of the country, known for their arid conditions, often experience delayed rainfall, with planting activities starting later in the season, usually from mid-November onwards.
Monitoring Weather Conditions
As we prepare for the 2024-25 planting season, all eyes are on the weather forecasts. Global meteorological agencies and forums like SARCO ( Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum) have been closely monitoring the possibility of a La Niña event this season. La Niña generally brings above-average rainfall to Southern Africa, including Namibia, which could be a much-needed reprieve after several seasons of erratic and below-average rainfall.
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) recently convened the 29th Southern Africa Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) in Harare, Zimbabwe from 26th – 28th August 2024. The forum was attended by Climate Gurus, including Permanent Representatives from SADC Member States with the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), climate scientists, researchers, representatives from the water-energy-food nexus and socio-economic sectors, disaster risk management experts, national meteorological and hydrological services and development partners.
The SADC seasonal forecast for 2024-2025 indicates that Namibia can expect varying rainfall patterns across different regions during the summer crop season:
- October to December 2024: Most parts of Namibia, particularly the central and northern regions, are forecasted to receive normal to above-normal rainfall. However, southern Namibia may experience normal to below-normal rainfall during this period, suggesting a potential delay or reduced intensity of the rainy season in these areas.
- January to March 2025: The trend of normal to above-normal rainfall continues for the majority of Namibia, providing favourable conditions for crop growth. Nonetheless, western and south western regions may face normal to below-normal rainfall, which could impact agricultural activities and water availability in these areas.
The Namibia Meteorological Service (NMS) has also issued its seasonal forecast, aligning with global predictions. According to the NMS, there is a strong likelihood of above-average rainfall during the summer season, particularly in the central and northern regions of Namibia. However, the NMS has cautioned that while La Niña may bring more rain, the intensity and distribution of this rainfall remain uncertain. As always, variability in rainfall patterns could pose challenges, with some areas receiving too much rain and others not enough.
Recent Climatic Challenges
Namibia is emerging from a challenging agricultural season. The 2023-24 period was marked by prolonged dry spells during critical crop development stages, leading to reduced yields and significant financial losses for farmers. According to the Namibia Agronomic Board (NAB), cereal production in 2023-24 was down by 18% compared to the previous season. This was largely due to the mid-summer drought, which negatively affected both dryland and irrigated crops.
For instance, maize yields in the central and northern regions were significantly lower than expected. Similarly, pearl millet, a staple crop for many households, also suffered yield reductions. As we enter the new season, farmers are hoping that La Niña will bring the consistent and widespread rainfall needed to recover from these setbacks.
Agricultural Outlook
Given the optimistic weather forecasts, there is hope for a better agricultural season in Namibia. Adequate and well-distributed rainfall could not only boost crop production but also improve grazing conditions for livestock, which have also been impacted by recent droughts.
Farmers, particularly those in the north-central regions, should prepare for the possibility of above-normal rainfall by ensuring their fields are ready for early planting. Those in the drier southern regions should remain vigilant and continue monitoring local weather updates, as rainfall patterns can vary significantly within short distances.
As we approach the 2024-25 summer crop season, the Namibian agricultural community is cautiously optimistic. The possibility of La Niña brings hope for much-needed rainfall after a tough previous season. However, the unpredictable nature of weather patterns means that preparation and adaptability remain key.
Farmers should stay informed through regular updates from the Namibia Meteorological Service and other reliable sources. By doing so, they can make informed decisions and maximize the potential benefits of the expected rains.
Let’s all hope that this season brings the relief and recovery that Namibian agriculture desperately needs.
Benedick Moody Louw is Founder & MD of Green Horizons Namibia Farming, with focus on cereal production and horticulture. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Agriculture from the Namibia University of Science and Technology, specializing in Sustainable Agriculture.
