Renthia Kaimbi
The race for Swapo Party’s top four leadership positions is gaining momentum ahead of the ruling party’s 2027 Congress, with behind-the-scenes manoeuvring, competing candidacies and growing speculation over possible factional divisions within the party.
The Windhoek Observer understands that member of parliament Austin Samupwa has already started campaigning for the position of deputy secretary general (DSG), although it remains unclear whether he has formally declared his candidacy or expressed an interest in the position.
Sources said that Samupwa’s alleged campaign may not necessarily translate into support from the party’s leadership, which is allegedly considering former Kavango regional governor and member of parliament Sebastian Karupu as its preferred candidate for the position.
“While he has taken the initiative to campaign for himself, he might not get support from leadership,” a source said.
When contacted for comment, Samupwa dismissed the allegations as premature.
“We are not yet there. Forget it. It’s not yet time for those things. Only next year. So, whoever is throwing out my name must wait,” he said.
The sources suggested that Karupu could emerge as the candidate favoured by influential figures within the party, potentially setting up a contest between individual ambitions and the leadership’s preferred succession arrangements.
The contest for secretary general is also expected to attract several contenders, with Oshikoto regional coordinator Armas Amukwiyu reportedly preparing to make a third attempt at the position.
Amukwiyu, who has unsuccessfully contested the position twice before, is allegedly set to face legal practitioner Sisa Namandje and former minister of environment, forestry and tourism Pohamba Shifeta, whose potential candidacy has recently entered the political conversation.
Amukwiyu told the Windhoek Observer he would comment on his potential candidacy next year.
Namandje said he has not disclosed interest in the position to anyone and remains committed to his law firm.
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“I have never heard about that. I never discussed it with anyone and the party has not called for any nominations. I’m dedicated to my practice and I want to practice until I’m 80 years old. Whoever is mentioning my name is irrelevant because nominations will only become relevant next year,” Namandje stated.
Shifeta’s name gained prominence following a belated Heroes’ Day commemoration held at his home village in Ongenga last weekend.
The event took place as Swapo secretary general Sophia Shaningwa simultaneously addressed a gathering in Ogongo.
Both gatherings appeared to attract significant attendance, fuelling speculation about competing centres of influence within the ruling party as political positioning intensifies ahead of the congress.
While attendance at the two events does not in itself establish the existence of rival factions, the parallel gatherings have added to questions about the alignments emerging around the party’s next leadership.
Shaningwa is herself allegedly positioning for the party’s vice-presidential position, where she could face competition from member of parliament Tobie Aupindi.
Asked about his intended candidacy, Aupindi remarked that the elective congress is a platform for mandate renewal, electing leadership and shaping our party’s future.
“I am honoured to be part of this historic gathering and excited about the opportunity to be one of the more than 800 delegates who will advance transformational leadership and a new strategic direction for our Party and country,” he said.
The Windhoek Observer has also learnt from reliable sources that Vice President Lucia Witbooi has entered the mix of potential contenders for the position, adding another name to an increasingly crowded field.
National Assembly Speaker Saara Kuugongelwa-Amadhila has also been mentioned as a possible contender for the vice-presidency. Sources suggested that her experience and credentials could place her among the party figures eligible to contest the position.
The presidency, meanwhile, appears set to remain uncontested, with President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah expected to lead the party into the next congress without a challenger.
However, speculation about possible divisions within the party has extended to the relationship between Nandi-Ndaitwah and Shaningwa.
Sources close to Shaningwa dismissed suggestions of a rift between the two leaders, describing the alleged divisions as “artificial”.
Conversely, sources close to the presidency pointed to what they described as a visible disconnect between Nandi-Ndaitwah and Shaningwa, suggesting that differences in their political relationships could become more apparent as the succession contest unfolds.
The competing accounts highlight the uncertainty surrounding the party’s internal dynamics, with the identities of prospective candidates and the level of leadership support they command likely to shape the contest in the coming months.
At the centre of the contest are party eligibility requirements that sources say could determine who ultimately qualifies to compete for the top four positions.
According to the sources, candidates must have served consecutively in party structures, particularly the Central Committee and Politburo, for more than 10 years.
The requirements, which sources referred to as the “Helmut Angula Amendments”, are allegedly intended to prevent newcomers and opportunists from ascending to senior leadership positions without an established record of service within the party.
The rules could narrow the pool of eligible candidates and potentially influence the outcome of the contest, particularly if some of the names currently circulating fail to meet the requirements.
Meanwhile, the succession battle within the Swapo Party Youth League (SPYL) is also beginning to take shape, with current deputy secretary Christine Haindaka reportedly positioning herself to succeed outgoing secretary Ephraim Nekongo.
However, sources allege that Haindaka, alongside SPYL Central Committee member Taddeus Shithigona, faces questions about the age limit governing membership of the youth wing.
The SPYL’s age limit is 35, and the issue could become contentious if either prospective candidate is found to have exceeded the threshold.
“There are only two ways in which a member loses their SPYL membership and it’s either by being expelled or reaching the age limit of 35,” a source told the Windhoek Observer.
The source also rejected arguments that ethnic representation should influence the choice of Nekongo’s successor, disputing what was described as a sudden push for greater diversity in the youth league’s leadership.
“Historically, the first first SPYL Secretary was Ignatius Shixwameni, followed by Paulus Kapia and current Prime Minister Elijah Ngurare. Currently, even the majority of SPYL leadership positions are occupied by non-oshiwambo speaking comrades, therefore, the sudden push for so-called ‘diversity’ within the party holds no water,” the source stated.
The succession debate comes as the ruling party navigates competing expectations around representation, experience and the distribution of leadership positions.
A preliminary assessment by sources suggests that the eventual composition of the top four could see women occupying the presidency and vice-presidency, while men take the secretary general and deputy secretary general positions.
Such an arrangement would be consistent with Swapo’s so-called “zebra-style” approach, which seeks to ensure equal gender representation in party structures by alternating male and female candidates in leadership positions.
Political analyst Ben Mulongeni, however, has questioned the approach, arguing that gender-based arrangements risk sidelining capable candidates and prioritising representation over leadership qualities.
“I am personally not in support of the zebra style because the approach does not produce quality leadership in any sphere of life,” Mulongeni told the Windhoek Observer.
He argued that the approach can be particularly problematic at lower party structures, where experienced members may be excluded from the process because they are not invited to restructuring meetings.
Mulongeni described the gender-balancing arrangement as a system created by people rather than an unavoidable political principle, saying it could undermine the selection of capable leaders.
“Even in a church, contenders are expected to only be Christians. We are losing out on quality leaders because their involvement is dependent on whether they’re wearing a skirt or trousers,” he said.
He maintained that leadership positions should be determined by candidates’ political convictions, competence and experience rather than gender.
“If all of them in the top four positions have the right ideology, political and economic philosophy and they’re from the same gender, they must be allowed. That is democracy.”
