CHAMWE KAIRA
South Africa, Namibia’s biggest partner, has received positive credit rating actions from Moody’s Ratings and Fitch Ratings, with both agencies citing improvements in the country’s fiscal position and progress on structural reforms.
The National Treasury announced that Moody’s Ratings revised South Africa’s sovereign credit rating outlook to positive from stable on 22 May 2026, while affirming the country’s long-term local and foreign currency ratings at Ba2.
The analysis of Namibia’s top trading partners revealed that South Africa emerged as the country’s largest market for both exports and imports in April, according to the Namibia International Merchandise Trade Statistics Bulletin.
According to the Treasury, the positive outlook marks Moody’s first favourable outlook revision for South Africa since 2007 and makes the country the only G20 member currently assigned a positive outlook by the agency.
The announcement comes amid a period of generally negative sovereign rating actions globally.
Moody’s said the outlook revision reflects South Africa’s gradually improving fiscal performance and continued implementation of structural reforms, which it expects will support stronger investment and economic growth.
The agency forecasts real gross domestic product growth to increase gradually to around 2% by 2028, while the primary fiscal surplus is expected to reach about 2% of GDP, contributing to a gradual decline in the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio.
The agency, however, retained the Ba2 rating, citing South Africa’s still relatively weak fiscal and economic fundamentals despite progress in fiscal consolidation and reforms.
Moody’s added that the country’s flexible exchange rate, low foreign currency external debt and strong institutional framework continue to support the sovereign rating.
Separately, Fitch Ratings upgraded South Africa’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings from BB- to BB on 5 June 2026, while maintaining a stable outlook.
According to the National Treasury, the upgrade is the first by Fitch in almost 21 years and makes South Africa only the second G20 country to receive a ratings upgrade from the agency this year.
Fitch attributed the upgrade to South Africa’s prudent fiscal management and progress in reducing fiscal deficits despite subdued economic growth and domestic and external challenges.
The agency said these factors, together with revisions to GDP data, have resulted in the government’s debt-to-GDP ratio remaining well below the levels anticipated when the country was downgraded to BB- in 2020.
The National Treasury said the latest assessments by both agencies reflect growing confidence in South Africa’s fiscal trajectory and ongoing reform programme.
