Wandile Sihlobo
The Agricultural Conditions Assessment Committee of South Africa (ACAC) released its first-quarter 2026 report, providing a brief synopsis that is valuable for understanding the sector’s gross value-added performance at the start of this year.
At the onset, the ACAC stated that “The first quarter (Q1) of 2026 presented a mixed bag of fortunes for the agriculture sector. Although the ACAC expects a generally positive growth rate, it is most likely going to be significantly slower compared to the increase of 15.8% recorded in the same quarter of 2025.”
In zooming into the details of the sector’s underlying issues, ACAC noted that:
“In field crops, Q1 typically represents a period of late deliveries from the previous year’s winter crops (wheat, barley, canola, oats and sweet lupins). Based on the latest estimates of the Crop Estimates Committee, last year’s crop and the late deliveries are very much in line with the previous season’s crop. Therefore, no major deviations in terms of output from winter cereal crops are expected.”
The picture is much more positive in terms of the summer crop assessment, as ACAC states the following:
“In terms of summer crops, Q1 is also the period during which farmers are nurturing the crops that were planted, with a range of activities including top dressing of fertilisers, herbicide and pesticide management, etc. Based on the latest estimates by the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC), the total cropping area for summer crops has expanded by about 5% for the current (2025/26) production season. The ACAC expects that the expanded area under production, as well as favourable rainfall conditions, will have boosted overall usage of fuel, fertiliser, and chemicals. In terms of prices, most of these activities took place before the start of the war and the consequent sharp rise in input prices in February.
When it comes to the outlook for Q2, the latest CEC estimates project a record grain and oilseeds crop of 20.8 million tonnes, driven by increased plantings and favourable weather conditions in most regions. This, however, comes at a time when prices are very low—approximately 20% to 30% below those seen in the previous season. Overall, output in summer grains and oilseeds in Q2 2026 is unlikely to reach the levels achieved in Q2 2025. Furthermore, rising input costs, particularly fertiliser and fuel, are affecting farmers’ overall profitability. The ACAC will reflect on the impact of high input costs in Q3, when the CEC releases the intended plantings of the next summer crop.”
The one subsector that remains a challenge is the livestock and poultry sector. The issues of foot-and-mouth disease remain very much on the mind and continue to constrain the subsector’s performance. Still, the poultry industry faces much better conditions, with relatively affordable feed prices and better production conditions. Thus, it was unsurprising that ACAC observed that:
“In livestock, Q1 of 2026 has also presented a mixed bag of fortunes. Considering the largest industry, poultry, there has been solid growth in output numbers (expected to be in the region of 5% compared to 2025), and chicken prices in Q1 were approximately 8% higher than in 2025. The industry has also benefited from much lower feed costs, driven by lower maize and soybean meal prices. Overall, the ACAC expects positive growth numbers from the poultry industry.”
However, in the case of the cattle industry, ACAC noted that:
“When it comes to dairy, the industry has been severely affected by the negative impact of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), with production numbers down. Higher prices and lower feed costs have partially offset lower production.” Moreover, “The red meat industry in Q1 2026 has also been significantly impacted by an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, leading to a sharp contraction in supply and a corresponding surge in market prices. The disease outbreak has placed severe pressure on slaughter numbers, resulting in a notable year-on-year (YoY) decline. Cattle slaughterings decreased by approximately 17%, and pig slaughterings declined by 10%. The reduction in slaughterings and consequent lower supply of red meat has driven substantial price increases compared to Q1 2025.”
*Wandile Sihlobo is South Africa’s presidential envoy on agriculture and land.
