Agricultural Economics Today, economist Wandile Sihlobo has started that Southern Africa’s maize supplies will likely be tight in the 2023/24 season.
Zambia, the second largest maize producer in the area after South Africa, declared a drought disaster and there will be increased pressure on South Africa to supply maize to the neighbouring countries.
South Africa’s early production forecasts indicate that the country will also face a challenge in maize production.
The Crop Estimate Committee places South Africa’s 2023/24 white and yellow maize harvest at 7 million tonnes (down 17% year on year) and 7,3 million tonnes (down 8% year on year), thus placing the overall maize production estimate at 14,3 million tonnes (down 13% year on year).
Sihlobo said while the expected maize harvest of 14,3 million tonnes is significantly lower than the previous season, if it materialises, it would still meet South Africa’s annual maize consumption of roughly 12 million tonnes, and the country would remain a net exporter of maize, although a much lower volume than the previous years.
He said if the region struggles with drought, South Africa’s possible small surplus may be too tight to meet regional needs. There are also drought concerns in neighbouring countries such as Botswana, Lesotho and Zimbabwe.
This week, the Namibian Agronomic Board spokesperson Fabian Auguste, explained to Observer Money what the implications of the reduced maize production will have on Namibia.
Observer Money (OM): How much white maize is Namibia expected to import in 2023/24 season.
Fabian Auguste (FA): 162 000 tonnes, given that we expect about 38 000 tonnes in local production. Our total domestic demand is 180 00 tonnes per annum.
(OM): Southern Africa’s maize supplies will likely be tight in the 2023/24 season. Where does this leave Namibia, how much white maize will be produced in Namibia in the 2023/24 season?
(FA): South Africa is a net exporter of white maize and the low expected harvest will not affect the export to Namibia as we only import 140 000 tonnes annually out of the 15 million tonnes they produced. Therefore, the low anticipated yield will not have an impact on exports to Namibia.
(OM): Zambia, the second largest maize producer in the area after South Africa, has declared a drought disaster, there will be increased pressure on South Africa to supply maize to the neighbouring countries. Where else can Namibia import maize apart from South Africa and Zambia?
(FA): Namibia has not imported white maize from Zambia over the past three years. Namibia will still rely on import from South Africa to meet the shortfall.
