CHAMWE KAIRA
Namibia’s mining sector outlook remains positive despite uneven production and global headwinds.
In the immediate term, the Chamber of Mines of Namibia anticipates weaker real growth from the mining sector in 2026, reflecting lower production across several key commodities.
Gold output has declined following Otjikoto’s transition from open-pit mining, while zinc production remains subdued and weakness in the global diamond market continues to weigh on the sector.
Uranium production has also been uneven, although the sharp decline recorded in June largely reflected a temporary planned maintenance shutdown at Swakop Uranium.
Importantly, weaker production volumes do not necessarily imply a corresponding decline in the value generated by the sector.
Strong gold and uranium prices are expected to partly cushion the impact of lower production by supporting producer revenues, export earnings and fiscal contributions.
Uranium and gold accounted for 22.3% and 11.8% of Namibia’s total exports respectively in June, demonstrating their growing importance to the country’s external sector.
“The near-term picture is therefore one of weaker production growth but comparatively resilient value generation. This is particularly important as Namibia’s mining industry undergoes a transition away from some mature and declining operations towards a broader
production base,” the Chamber of Mines of Namibia.
Looking beyond 2026, the medium-term outlook remains positive, the Chamber said.
The Chamber said the advancement of projects such as Twin Hills and Etango, the continued ramp-up of Langer Heinrich, together with underground developments at Navachab and Otjikoto, are expected to progressively broaden Namibia’s production base.
“Combined with favourable market conditions for uranium, gold and several base metals, these developments provide a foundation for renewed production growth, investment, employment and export earnings over the medium term,” the Chamber said.
The Chamber said it views 2026 as a transitional year for the mining sector. It said while lower production is expected to constrain real mining growth in the immediate term; strong commodity prices should provide an important buffer through export earnings and revenues.
“Over the medium term, the progression of new projects and expansion of existing operations is expected to strengthen and diversify Namibia’s mining industry. Maintaining a competitive, stable and predictable operating environment will be critical to converting this investment pipeline into sustained economic growth.”
