Staff Writer
Mineral price movements in September suggest that inflation and rising interest rates may be starting to temper price gains, while Namibia’s mining output declined in August, according to the September 2026 Monthly Mining Update by the Chamber of Mines of Namibia.
Higher year-to-date mineral prices and positive long-term demand fundamentals nevertheless remain supportive of the sector’s outlook.
The ongoing war in the Middle East continues to put upward pressure on fuel prices, with the average price of Brent crude reaching US$116.8 per barrel in September, an increase of 28.5% from August.
In Namibia, headline inflation rose to 5.4% in September from 5.0% in August.
Transport inflation reached 14.9% year on year, contributing 2.2 percentage points to headline inflation, which was the largest single contribution.
Petrol and diesel prices rose 30.4% over the same period, which is fuelling operating costs for the mining sector and reducing margins.
Mineral prices were mixed in September, with monthly declines recorded for gold and tin, while other minerals registered more modest gains as compared to August.
Although year to- date average prices remain higher for these minerals, persistent inflation and elevated interest rates pose risks to further price gains.
The Mining Production Composite Index declined by 4% month on month, driven by a 12% fall in diamond production. Uranium, zinc and gold production rose by 8%, 27% and 4% respectively.
However, due to the larger weighting of diamonds in the index, these gains did not offset the decline.
The Bank of Namibia has revised its 2026 mining forecast to a 6.2% contraction, compared to negative 2.2% in the previous outlook, which is aligned to the declining output recorded so far this year.
In August, minerals made up 72% of Namibia’s domestic exports (N$6.69 billion of N$9.33 billion), up from 62% in July.
Uranium led the increase, with exports rising 438% month-on month to N$3.36 billion. This followed the resumption of full production at Husab in July after its planned maintenance shutdown in June.
The Chamber said it was too early to judge by how much higher inflation and interest rates will offset positive long-term fundamentals, particularly for gold, uranium and copper.
Higher average gold and uranium prices are expected to offset lower production volumes in the short term, supporting export earnings and government revenues.
The medium- to long-term outlook for Namibia’s mining sector remains positive as new mines and expansions come online,including Bannerman’s Etango Uranium Project, Reptile Uranium’s Tumas Uranium Project,
Osino Resources’ Twin Hills Gold Project, as well as the ramp-up of Langer Heinrich and the Rosh Pinah RP2.0 expansion project.
“Near-term cost and macroeconomic pressures are real, but firm gold and uranium prices and a strong project pipeline keep the outlook for Namibia’s mining sector positive,” said Fabian Shaanika, chief executive officer of the Chamber of Mines of Namibia.
