Middle East war knocks global air cargo demand down

Staff Writer

Global air cargo demand fell by 4.8% in March compared to the same month last year as the war in the Middle East disrupted key freight hubs and raised fuel costs, the International Air Transport Association said.

IATA reported that total cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, declined by 4.8% year-on-year, while international cargo operations declined by 5.5%. Capacity also decreased by 4.7%, with international capacity down 6.8%.

IATA director general Willie Walsh said the decline was driven by disruptions at major Gulf transit hubs as the conflict affected airline routes and cargo flows.

He said the usual slowdown after the Lunar New Year also contributed to weaker performance in March, although global trade indicators still point to growth in cargo demand during 2026.

The March figures follow strong growth in February, when global cargo demand rose by 11.2%, showing how quickly geopolitical tensions have affected freight markets.

Fuel costs also increased. Jet fuel prices rose by 106.6% year-on-year in March. Crude oil prices increased by 43.1%, while refining margins rose by 320%. This added pressure on airline operating costs.

Despite the global decline, African airlines recorded the strongest growth, with demand increasing by 7.0% in March. However, cargo capacity on the continent fell by 4.6%.

Asia-Pacific airlines recorded 5.4% growth, while European carriers saw demand increase by 2.2%.

Middle Eastern airlines recorded the sharpest decline. Cargo demand declined by 54.3% and capacity fell by 52.4%, making it the weakest-performing region.

North American carriers recorded a 1.2% decline, while Latin American and Caribbean airlines posted 1.8% growth.

On key trade routes, the Africa-Asia corridor recorded the highest growth at 22.6%. Europe-Asia traffic rose by 14.2%, and intra-Asia traffic increased by 7.5%.

Routes linked to the Gulf region declined sharply. Europe-Middle East traffic dropped by 57.6%, while Middle East-Asia fell by 58.6%.

Walsh said air cargo networks continue to support global supply chains during disruptions, but rising fuel costs and supply challenges are likely to test the sector in the coming months.

Caption

Air cargo decline was largely driven by severe disruptions at key Gulf transit points. 

  • Photo: Contributed 

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