CHAMWE KAIRA
FNB Namibia has said looking ahead, the group expects GDP growth to continue its positive trend observed over the last 14 quarters.
FNB Namibia economist Helena Mboti said the group expects improvements in the agriculture, electricity, and water sectors as weather conditions improve.
“We also anticipate a modest uptick in oil and gas activity in the fourth quarter with even greater momentum in 2025, alongside continued strong production in uranium, gold, and metal ores. This could lead to a quicker-than-expected recovery in the mining sector, potentially occurring in the fourth quarter of 2024,” she said.
She pointed out that the tax adjustments and refunds introduced in October are likely to stimulate private spending, particularly during the festive season.
“Despite the significant downward revision in financial services activities, upward revisions in agriculture, mining, and construction sectors for 2024 support our growth outlook. As a result, we are maintaining our GDP growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 at 3,5% and 4,8%, respectively,” said Mboti.
According to data from the Namibian Statistics Agency (NSA), GDP growth increased to 2,8% year on year in the third quarter up from 2,7% in the previous quarter. While this is lower than 3,1% in the third quarter of 2023, it marks the 14th consecutive quarter of growth in the Namibian economy.
The year-on-year slowdown was primarily due to a weak performance in the primary industry, although growth was sustained by the tertiary and secondary industries.
The size of the Namibian economy reached N$61, 6 billion in the third quarter of 2023, N$5,3 billion higher than the same period last year.
Namibia’s GDP growth slowed over the quarter from 3,1% in the third quarter of 2023 to 2,8% in the third quarter of 2024, weighed down by a weak performance in the primary sector, which was partially offset by a strong performance in the tertiary sector, and supported by growth in the secondary sector.
The wholesale and retail trade sector was the main driver of growth, alongside the financial services and health sectors.