Erasmus Shalihaxwe
Afrobarometer’s representative in Namibia, Christie Keulder, has clarified that their survey on the outcome of the November elections was conducted with a specific focus on democracy and governance.
He clarified that people should not mistake the results of an election opinion poll for actual election results.
Keulder made this statement on Tuesday in response to media reports where local politicians questioned the credibility of the survey and dismissed it as a meaningless poll that does not reflect the political reality in Namibia.
He said Afrobarometer is a Pan-African, non-partisan survey research network that provides reliable data on African experiences and evaluations of democracy, governance, and quality of life.
“The Afrobarometer team in Namibia, led by Survey Warehouse, interviewed a nationally representative sample of 1,200 adult Namibians in March 2024. A sample of this size yields country-level results with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Previous surveys were conducted in Namibia in 1999, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2017, 2019, and 2021,” said Keulder.
He added that the collected data aims to provide insights into citizens’ views on critical issues and not predict electoral outcomes.
According to him, claims that the survey is the first of its kind are incorrect because the organisation has been conducting surveys since 1999.
So far, it has completed 10 rounds in Namibia as of March 2024, and each round builds on the previous ones, offering valuable data that tracks changes in public opinion over time.
“We are also concerned about reports that have presented survey data without including vital details on the sampling strategy and margin of error. For example, with a sampling margin of error of approximately three percentage points at a 95% confidence level, the reported support for various opposition political parties should be seen as statistically indistinguishable. Omitting this context leads to misleading conclusions, such as the erroneous claim that one party will overtake another as the official opposition based solely on our survey results,” stated Keulder.
He further added that Afrobarometer recognises that political leaders may have varying reactions to survey data, but it is crucial to present the findings accurately and in the appropriate context.
This entails articulating the research’s nature clearly, setting the findings in context, and making sure the public understands crucial methodological details.
