Elvis Mboya
South Africa’s changing political landscape exposes the economic consequences of weak governance, unemployment and poor service delivery, raising important questions for Namibia’s ruling Swapo Party and the wider Southern African region.
The African National Congress (ANC)’s declining electoral support is exposing the growing relationship between political accountability and economic performance in Southern Africa.
Its latest setback comes amid persistent unemployment, municipal infrastructure problems, corruption concerns and public dissatisfaction with service delivery.
For Namibia’s Swapo Party, the developments offer an important case study in the changing political economy of liberation movements.
Both parties have governed for decades. Both must now operate in political environments where voters increasingly judge governments by economic outcomes rather than historical credentials.
South Africa’s 4 November 2026 local government elections delivered the ANC its worst electoral performance since the end of apartheid.
Its national vote fell to 30.76%, compared with 45.59% in the 2021 municipal elections. The Democratic Alliance (DA) received 24.64%, while the uMkhonto weSizwe Party secured 9.77%.
In Johannesburg, the country’s commercial and financial centre, the DA received 34.79%, against the ANC’s 20.25%. Neither party secured an outright majority, leaving coalition negotiations to determine the city’s next administration.
The significance extends beyond party politics. Johannesburg is a major centre of financial services, corporate headquarters, industrial activity and investment.
Its municipal administration influences the operating environment for businesses through electricity, water, roads, transport and waste management.
Persistent infrastructure failures increase business costs, disrupt production and affect the attractiveness of the city to investors.
The ability of municipal governments to maintain infrastructure, collect revenue and deliver services is therefore directly connected to economic performance.
The electoral results also raise questions about how coalition negotiations will affect municipal budgets, infrastructure investment and administrative continuity.
ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula acknowledged the scale of the setback. “This has been a catastrophic outcome for the ANC,” he said on 7 November.
His remarks followed the party’s loss of ground in several important metropolitan areas, including Johannesburg, SA’s economic and financial capital.
The results place renewed attention on the ANC’s record in municipal administration, particularly service delivery, infrastructure maintenance and public accountability.
Swapo and the governance equation
Namibia’s political landscape presents a different but relevant context.
SWAPO retained the presidency in 2024, with Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah securing 58.1% of the presidential vote. However, its parliamentary representation declined from 63 seats in 2019 to 51 in 2024, its weakest result since independence.
The result reflected a changing electoral environment and increased competition from opposition parties.
Economic conditions remain central to that environment.
Youth unemployment, housing shortages, limited access to economic opportunities and the cost of living continue to feature prominently in national development debates.
Namibia has substantial mineral resources, including uranium, diamonds, gold and emerging critical minerals. Oil and gas discoveries, renewable energy and logistics also offer investment opportunities.
However, the economic significance of these resources depends on how effectively they generate domestic production, employment, government revenue and participation by local businesses.
Speaking to the Windhoek Observer, NUDO member of parliament Vetaruhe Kandorozu linked the ANC’s electoral decline to its governance record.
He pointed to alleged mismanagement, corruption, nepotism, questionable tender practices, poor service delivery and failure to create employment opportunities for young people.
“Swapo must move away from liberation rhetoric and deliver services to the Namibian people, or else it risks facing the same political consequences as the ANC,” Kandorozu said.
His observations bring the debate back to the economic responsibilities of the government and how public resources are allocated, who benefits from procurement, whether infrastructure spending creates productive capacity and whether economic growth translates into employment.
These questions are particularly relevant in Namibia, where the contribution of extractive industries to national income does not automatically translate into sufficient employment across the wider economy.
The N$86 billion trade interdependence
The political and economic developments in South Africa also have direct implications for Namibia because of the depth of their bilateral economic relationship.
Trade between the two countries reached approximately N$86 billion in 2025. Namibia exported goods worth N$29.21 billion to South Africa, while imports amounted to N$57.84 billion, leaving a trade deficit of approximately N$28.63 billion.
International relations and trade minister Selma Ashipala-Musavyi presented the figures during the fourth Namibia-South Africa Bi-National Commission in July 2026.
“Our bilateral trade figures highlight the importance of convening the BNC at the highest level as the economies of Namibia and South Africa are deeply intertwined,” she said.
The figures illustrate an important structural feature of Namibia’s economy. South Africa remains a major source of manufactured products, food, vehicles, machinery, pharmaceuticals and construction materials.
Its businesses are also deeply integrated into Namibia’s banking, retail, distribution and transport sectors.
This interdependence exposes Namibia to developments in the South African economy.
Supply-chain disruptions, infrastructure constraints and changes in business operating costs can transmit across the border.
The one-to-one currency peg between the Namibia dollar and the South African rand further reinforces the economic relationship. However, the trade imbalance also highlights Namibia’s industrial development challenge.
Increasing domestic manufacturing, agricultural processing and mineral beneficiation could reduce dependence on imported finished products while expanding export capacity.
Walvis Bay and the Trans-Kalahari Corridor offer opportunities to strengthen regional logistics and connect businesses to wider Southern and East African markets.
The Namibia-South Africa Business Council provides a platform for advancing private-sector investment, joint ventures and industrial cooperation.
Its effectiveness will depend on whether the political commitments translate into actual commercial projects and productive investment.
A regional political economy shift
The ANC’s electoral decline forms part of a broader pattern of changing political competition across Africa.
Botswana’s Botswana Democratic Party lost power in 2024 after 58 years in government, while Kenya’s KANU lost power in 2002 after nearly four decades.
Zimbabwe’s ZANU-PF, Mozambique’s FRELIMO and Angola’s MPLA have also operated in increasingly competitive political environments.
These experiences highlight the relationship between political longevity, institutional performance and economic expectations.
For Namibia, the central issue is how effectively government policy converts natural-resource wealth and regional economic advantages into broader productive activity.
The ANC’s latest results have brought that relationship into sharper focus. Municipal services, infrastructure investment, public procurement and employment are not merely administrative matters.
They are components of the economic environment on which businesses, households and investors depend.
Across Southern Africa, the political economy of liberation movements is increasingly being shaped by a measurable question of how effectively political power has translated into economic opportunity and improved living standards?
