Dylan Mukoroli
After years of subdued growth, slowing to around 1.7% in 2025 amid diamond sector weakness and lingering drought effects; the administration under H.E Dr. Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah is most determined to hit Ctrl + Alt + Delete on structural bottlenecks and unlock growth opportunities.
The goal is not incremental tinkering but a decisive and much needed restart. What is further encouraging is seeing the unlocking of private-sector dynamism in the works of the administration, and building genuine resilience.
Once the honeymoon phase is over and things go quiet, this is where the real work starts.
Oil and gas discoveries, a gold, copper and uranium mining exploration boom, and agriculture’s job-creating potential offer the pathway. However, this pathway is not a straight one.
Within this, seeing productive outcomes demands clear rules, stronger oversight, enforced local content, and climate-smart prioritisation; before opportunities slip or shocks hit.
Commencing with oil and gas. The Orange Basin’s Venus and Mopane finds position Namibia as a potential new producer from the late 2020s, with Venus alone holding hundreds of millions of barrels and possible plateau output near 150 000 barrels per day.
The government has rightly moved to safeguard national benefit from Petroleum Exploration Licences.
Placing the Upstream Petroleum Unit under the Presidency, advancing the Petroleum Exploration and Production Amendment Bill, and securing Cabinet approval for the National Upstream Petroleum Local Content Policy signal intent to capture more value through royalties, taxes, Namcor participation, and skills transfer.
These steps address the risk of licences changing hands primarily for speculative gains by external players while Namibians remain side lined.
Yet policy must become law and practice, and it needs to trickle down and not benefit a few. Local content cannot remain a non-binding aspiration.
It needs enforceable targets for Namibian ownership,procurement from local firms, employment, training, and technology transfer; without scaring off the capital and expertise required for deep-water development.
Having done desktop research with reliable sources, the cost for deep-water surpasses the GDP of dozens of nations. Even if we were to be revolutionary and direct GIPF to jump in, the risk carried is too great. In our words, ‘Die ou mense sal nie pay nie’.
A balanced fiscal regime, transparent revenue management via the Welwitschia Fund or similar sovereign mechanisms and faster decision-making will convert first oil into lasting fiscal space and jobs rather than enclave extraction.
Delays in legislation or opaque licence dealings only invite rent-seeking and investor hesitation.
The same logic applies to the broader mining rush. Gold and uranium exploration is intensifying; projects advancing at Twin Hills, Etango, Tumas, Kokoseb and we hope the ministry of agriculture and its plenty names will issue drilling permits to Rosatom’s Headspring Investments so that they can continue their exploration work, and Omaheke can finally join the mining regions of the Republic, however not only join, but lead Africa’s first In situ Leach mine.
A widely used mining method that will safeguard critical water sources, but at the same time ensure communities benefit from their resources.
Nationally, Uranium production has already shown strong gains; gold remains resilient. Hundreds of exclusive prospecting licences have been issued over two decades, yet few convert to operating mines.
Also, mukuru uandje, finalise the long-awaited Minerals Bill with sensible local participation requirements; avoiding extreme mandates such as blanket 51% ownership that have already dented investment attractiveness perceptions; while prioritising beneficiation, skills development, and higher state equity or royalties where geology and economics allow.
Farming & Agriculture remains the government’s optimistic; and necessary bet for broad-based & real time jobs.
The sector supports the majority of Namibians directly or indirectly, yet contributes modestly to GDP and leaves the country heavily import-dependent for staples.
To date, nothing beats Omaheke’s geelvetmakoeloes (yellow fat red meat/Biltong), the sheer quality really shows our resilience and how we managed to build a farming system, whether you are on a commercial farm or in the reservat.
Furthermore, NDP6 targets higher output, import substitution toward 80% local production in key crops, expanded agro-processing, and livestock growth.
Properly executed and with effort unlike never seen before, irrigation expansion, value-chain development,climate-smart practices, and market access can generate many meaningful rural jobs, raise incomes, and reduce food insecurity.
But optimism without resilience is fragile. A strengthening El Niño threatens hotter, drier conditions from late 2026 into 2027, with potential rainfall deficits and higher temperatures in key regions.
Recent droughts already demonstrated the human and fiscal cost. The government must prioritise adaptation now: scale climate-smart agriculture, drought-resistant seeds and livestock, water infrastructure and efficient irrigation, early-warning systems, fodder reserves, and farmer training.
Budget allocations and programmes for resilience cannot be the first cut when fiscal pressures arise. Linking agricultural support to measurable productivity and climate outcomes, while encouraging private investment in processing and logistics, will turn the sector from a vulnerability into a stabiliser.
Structural reforms must bind these strands together. Clear, stable rules reduce policy uncertainty that deters investment. Skills alignment with emerging energy and mining needs, regulatory streamlining, efficient public investment, and transparent resource revenue management will raise potential growth above the projected 2–3% range.
Local content done right builds domestic capabilities rather than mere compliance theatre. Oversight that is rigorous yet predictable maximises rents without killing the golden goose.
The administration has tools and political capital. Hitting Ctrl + Alt + Economic Growth means choosing decisive implementation over hesitation: legislate and enforce local content and upstream reforms, professionalise mining governance to capture more from the exploration wave, and harden agriculture against the next El Niño.
Namibia’s resources can fund a more inclusive, higher-growth future; if the reboot is thorough and the operating system prioritises Namibian benefit and long-term resilience.
*Dylan Mukoroli is passionate about Sustainable Community Development & Development Finance.
