Staff Writer
South Africa’s position as a leading aviation hub is coming under increasing pressure as regional competitors expand connectivity and invest in airport infrastructure, according to Airports Company South Africa (Acsa).
In its Corporate Plan for 2026/27 to 2028/29, Acsa said South Africa’s aviation growth had stagnated while countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya and Egypt were expanding their connectivity.
The company attributed the erosion of South Africa’s hub position to operational instability, regulatory constraints and the absence of a dominant airline to anchor connecting traffic.
It also identified fuel security vulnerabilities, inconsistent passenger facilitation and increased competition from newly built and well-capitalised African airports as factors contributing to the decline.
Acsa said there was still significant potential to strengthen South Africa’s position, with an unserved route pipeline indicating demand that had not yet been converted into strategic advantage.
It said restoring operational reliability, strengthening airline partnerships, modernising critical infrastructure and advancing cargo and aerotropolis development could help reposition South Africa as a competitive and dependable aviation gateway.
Acsa said the aviation sector also needed to respond to growing passenger demand for seamless digital services.
Passengers were increasingly expecting personalised and frictionless experiences before and during their journeys, including online check-in, biometric screening, automated baggage handling, mobile boarding, in-terminal navigation and contactless payments.
The company said airports globally were adopting artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things and data analytics to improve customer experience and operational efficiency while reducing waiting times.
Acsa said meeting these digital expectations would be important for passenger satisfaction and maintaining competitiveness.
The corporate plan also highlighted continued growth in the global air cargo market.
Global air cargo volumes reached 129 million metric tonnes in 2025, representing 2.9% year-on-year growth, according to the plan.
Acsa said sustained e-commerce demand was supporting cargo growth, although trade fragmentation, geopolitical tensions and changing industrial policies were reshaping cargo flows.
These developments were resulting in shifts in cargo lanes, repositioning of hubs and increased specialisation among airports.
Over the longer term, global air cargo volumes are projected to reach 262 million metric tonnes by 2054, representing a compound annual growth rate of 2.5% between 2024 and 2054.
The passenger outlook also points to continued long-term expansion despite near-term risks.
Acsa said geopolitical tensions, fragmented trade policies, economic volatility, infrastructure limitations and persistent aircraft supply constraints would continue to influence passenger and cargo traffic.
The company said these factors did not undermine the long-term growth outlook but reinforced the need for resilience-oriented planning, flexible capacity strategies and diversified traffic portfolios.
Global passenger traffic is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 3% between 2024 and 2054, more than doubling by the mid-2040s to 23.2 billion passengers and reaching about 2.5 times the 2024 level by 2054.
Africa is expected to record passenger growth of 3.6% over the period, reaching 754 million passengers.
Asia-Pacific is projected to reach 10 billion passengers at a 3.6% CAGR, while Europe is expected to reach 5.1 billion passengers at 2.4% growth.
Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to reach 1.9 billion passengers at 3.1%, the Middle East 1.4 billion at 3.9%, and North America 4.1 billion at 2.3%.
