Staff Writer
Not since the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq reshaped global security after 2001 or, more significantly, since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, has the international order undergone change on the scale we are witnessing today.
The US–Israeli war with Iran has proved more consequential for global energy security, trade and international stability than initially anticipated, while the US military intervention in Venezuela challenged established principles of national sovereignty and international law.
Beyond the headlines, however, the transatlantic alliance is under its greatest strain in decades, divided over Iran, Ukraine, trade, defence spending and the reliability of American security guarantees.
America’s tariffs, export controls and industrial subsidies have turned trade into an instrument of state power.
China, meanwhile, is intensifying military pressure on Taiwan, whose semiconductor industry lies at the heart of global electronics and artificial intelligence.
Barend Prinsloo, director of the Centre for Geopolitical Security and Strategy (CGSS) at the North-West University (NWU), explains that these seismic shifts are being driven by an undercurrent of intensifying competition for control over the currencies, energy resources, technologies and strategic minerals that will determine the global balance of power.
He also outlines several key considerations arising from a year that may yet prove to be a defining one in the early 21st century.
“The US dollar has remained the world’s leading reserve and trading currency in 2026, despite continued efforts by BRICS+ countries to reduce their dependence on it. What has changed is not the immediate position of the dollar, but the willingness of countries to explore alternatives. Central banks have accumulated more gold, certain states have expanded trade in their own currencies, and alternative payment mechanisms have received greater attention. We are not witnessing the sudden end of dollar dominance, but the gradual development of a more fragmented international financial system.”
He said during 2026, energy security has moved to the centre of international competition. Governments are no longer discussing energy only in terms of climate change or economic development; they are treating reliable and affordable energy as a matter of national security.
Prinsloo said in 2026, grid capacity has increasingly become a constraint on technological ambition. The global AI race has therefore developed into an energy race as well.
He noted that Europe remains dependent on American intelligence, logistics, advanced weapons and nuclear deterrence.
“Attempts to weaken the relationships among Russia, China and Iran have not produced a decisive realignment in 2026. These countries do not agree on every issue and should not be regarded as a perfectly unified alliance, but they share an interest in limiting American influence and reducing their vulnerability to Western sanctions. Russia’s economic dependence on China, Iran’s integration into BRICS and other alternative institutions, and their shared opposition to Western pressure give them strong reasons to continue cooperating. Their alignment has proved more durable than many Western policymakers may have anticipated.”
